Monday, September 24, 2007
Edwards Leads Latest Poll in Iowa
The latest SurveryUSA poll shows that Edwards has the greatest chance of beating a Republican in November of 2008.
The poll shows both Hillary and Obama knocking off Thompson, Giuliani and Romney - but by much smaller margins. Iowa voters - who have an enormous say in who our candidate will be - picked Edwards over Giuliani (39 - 53%), over Romney (38 - 54%) and Thompson (37 - 54%).
Our candidate 4 years ago was John Kerry. Remember that in December of 2003 that Kerry mortgaged his homes to infuse over $6 million into his campaign. Cash is not king in a Democratic primary. Kerry came from behind to won Iowa and went from being 15 points down in New Hampshire to 15 points up. I would argue that Kerry lost because he's an East coast liberal that was unelectable in swing states like Ohio and Missouri. Yes, I have perfect vision in hind sight. Yes, I can't call elections correctly in my own back yard. Let's assume, though, that any D nominee could win the states that Kerry won. Who is the candidate that can win Missouri, Ohio, Arkansas, Tennessee, Florida and South Carolina (the states Bill Clinton won)? This is the state that picked Blunt over Claire in 2004 and then picked McCaskill over Talent in 2006. I would argue that Edwards has a better shot at winning those swing states.
Edwards has a great chance on winning the nomination and may have the best chance to win back the White House.