Monday, September 24, 2007

Edwards Leads Latest Poll in Iowa


The latest SurveryUSA poll shows that Edwards has the greatest chance of beating a Republican in November of 2008.

The poll shows both Hillary and Obama knocking off Thompson, Giuliani and Romney - but by much smaller margins. Iowa voters - who have an enormous say in who our candidate will be - picked Edwards over Giuliani (39 - 53%), over Romney (38 - 54%) and Thompson (37 - 54%).

Our candidate 4 years ago was John Kerry. Remember that in December of 2003 that Kerry mortgaged his homes to infuse over $6 million into his campaign. Cash is not king in a Democratic primary. Kerry came from behind to won Iowa and went from being 15 points down in New Hampshire to 15 points up. I would argue that Kerry lost because he's an East coast liberal that was unelectable in swing states like Ohio and Missouri. Yes, I have perfect vision in hind sight. Yes, I can't call elections correctly in my own back yard. Let's assume, though, that any D nominee could win the states that Kerry won. Who is the candidate that can win Missouri, Ohio, Arkansas, Tennessee, Florida and South Carolina (the states Bill Clinton won)? This is the state that picked Blunt over Claire in 2004 and then picked McCaskill over Talent in 2006. I would argue that Edwards has a better shot at winning those swing states.

Edwards has a great chance on winning the nomination and may have the best chance to win back the White House.

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

In a swing state like Missouri, Edwards has a much better chance of carrying the state. Hillary, for all the wrong reasons, is hated by swing voters. Like or hate it, the Republicans have successfully demonized her among swing voters.

Jay Nixon needs Edwards at the top of the ticket to win back the Missouri Governor's mansion.

Anonymous said...

Maybe the problem with Kerry was that he had multiple homes he could mortgage for $6 million.

Maybe Claire lost because Kerry left Missouri hanging.

Anonymous said...

Maybe talking endlessly about how certain candidates "can't win Missouri" is a sure-fire way to induce one of those candidates --if he or she is the nominee-- to "leave us hanging" again like Kerry did in 2004?

I'm willing to bet that the very people who are bellyaching now about how terrible a Clinton (or Obama) candidacy will be for Missouri are guaranteed to be the first ones screaming bloody murder when and if one of those candidates gets the nomination and then pulls resources from Missouri, claiming the state can't be won.

Sure, some of us prefer different Dem candidates. That's primary politics. But we shouldn't encourage negative outcomes by claiming only "my candidate" can win Missouri. It's terribly short-sighted.

Stephen Bough said...

Maybe you are right. This is a Democratic primary, however, and the process involves picking a favorite candidate. At the end of this inside baseball deal, we will all back the winner.

Ignoring realities may be short-sighted, as well. Another reality is that a D only needs Missouri OR Ohio. One of those states will likely get left hanging again.

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