Wednesday, November 7, 2007

Presidential Poll - It Ain't Decided Yet

The mainstream media would have you believe that the Democratic primary has been decided. The DFA (Democracy for America) poll, however, shows it is much different.

Now, I will give you that an on-line poll lacks lots of the scientific qualities of a poll. However, a primary caucus in Iowa is about the die-hards coming out to stand in the corner of their favorite candidate. In that way, its kinda like an on-line poll - only those who are really pumped up about a candidate show up. The DFA poll shows the top 3 vote getters are Kucinich, Gore and Edwards. Clearly, there are some die hard Democrats out there that wants to vote for a liberal, even if they ain't running. The DFA poll allows you to drop off candidates.

Since the Iowa caucus is a two-round deal, candidates do get dropped off after the first round if they don't have 15% of the vote. Since Gore ain't running and Kucinich doesn't have a chance unless a UFO lands, that leaves lots of liberals looking at Edwards. Like the Iowa caucus, the DFA poll allowed you to put your candidates in order (1 - 3). Edwards won the DFA poll in Iowa. John Edwards picks up the Gore and Kucinich votes if they drop out and won the poll, again. If you drop out everyone but Edwards/Hillary/Obama, then Edwards is still the winner.

Like I said, it ain't real scientific, but I bet we are all a little amazed at what happens in Iowa on January 3rd.


the nitwit said...

Yeah, but ... It would seem that Edwards campaign, which is being run by Dean's ex-campaign manager, might have something of a stacked deck in a vote by the DFA faithful.

Just like if you only allowed fans at Kauffman to cast ballots, I'll bet the Royals would field a lot more All Stars too.

Dan said...

Not when the Cardinals are in town.